Niagara’s unemployment rate holding steady through economic uncertainty

Recent data from Niagara’s Workforce Collective showed the region’s unadjusted unemployment rate for October remained even, sitting at 6.5 per cent month-over-month and only 0.1 per cent down from August.

“We’re not seeing any big fluctuations in the unemployment rate,” said Vivian Kinnaird, the collective’s strategy lead and chief executive officer.

“We’re sitting a bit above Ontario as a whole and Canada as a whole but that’s to be expected. But what we’re finding also is the devil’s in the details on it — there’s really interesting trends in the details around the unemployment rate.”

About 91 per cent of men in Niagara, between the ages of 25 and 54, are in the workforce, with an October unemployment rate of 4.7 per cent. Women, in that same age category, have an unemployment rate of 8.5 per cent, with youth, ages 15 to 24, a rate of 10.1 per cent.

For Kinnaird, it is a tight labour market for sectors that tend to hire men in the “classic working age group,” but the overall unemployment rate “masks what’s going on in the population underneath.”

“And where the opportunities are for employers to look for new people to add to their workforce, which would be youth, women and even older adults, those over the age of 55 — their unemployment rate is still sitting higher than other age groups,” she said.

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• Dec 31, 1969
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• Dec 31, 1969
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One of the most notable trends has been the growth of Niagara’s labour force, adding about 14,000 people — 6.3 per cent — since August. All age categories saw a rise except young women, which decreased by 2,400 individuals.

Those numbers do tend to fluctuate up and down month-to-month, but Kinnaird said “that’s quite a sizable jump over a two month period.”

More people in Niagara reported employment, up three per cent from August and the participation rates also increased two per cent month-over-month. The region’s participation rate tends to lag behind provincial numbers, but its 64.6 per cent in October was just slightly below Ontario’s 65.3 per cent.

But again, Kinnaird said delving into the numbers show a “much more pronounced” difference between women, whose participation rate was 60.1 per cent in October, and 69 per cent for men.

The reference point for labour data continues to be pre-pandemic. So while women’s participation rates are higher now — in October 2019, women were at 57.7 per cent participation — it is not climbing at the same rate as men, with 64.2 per cent participation rate in October 2019.

As to why Niagara’s labour force has remained strong in times of economic uncertainty, Kinnaird said there are a variety of factors. While job vacancy rates have declined since the second quarter of 2022 — down about 1.5 per cent — the labour market remains a “dynamic situation,” with high job demand.

October saw more than 3,100 new jobs posted, with retail trade at the top (1,414 new postings), followed by health care (858), accommodation and food services (813) and manufacturing (535).

“We’ve got more people coming into the community and they’re filling jobs that are available here,” said Kinnaird. “There’s quite a bit of conversation going on right now about just how mobile people are and people moving around quite a lot, both in Ontario (and) between provinces. “The good news for us is we’re growing.”

There is also a possibility that other factors, such as cost of living, are encouraging people to join the labour force who perhaps didn’t have to before.

“Now they feel they do and the jobs are there for them.”

At the employer level, the economy has not led to many large changes. There continues to be seasonal variances impacting labour demand in sectors such as tourism, but Kinnaird said it has stayed fairly consistent.

“They may be holding on hiring for a little bit but we’re not hearing about significant decline and (employers) are still searching for highly skilled workers.”